johnlucas

(I thought I posted this here long ago but I look back on my history & I forgot to put it down so let me share this with you all now)

I made the following 'editorial' of sorts last year (November 5, 2005) on an article from Joystiq.com after reading the back & forth on the comment board about people's predictions on the industry.
Though a Nintendo supporter to the end I wanted to lay out fairly & even-handedly exactly WHAT the reasons were for the success & failures of the companies in gaming as a whole using the knowledge I had of the passing generation & the upcoming generation.

I then shortly took this argument to the newsgroups for archival preservation. (web forums disappear but newsgroup archives are forever)
Since it dealt with all the companies I cross-posted it to the following newsgroups for full feedback & discussion:
rec.games.video.nintendo, alt.games.video.nintendo.gamecube, rec.games.video.sony, alt.games.video.sony-playstation2, microsoft.public.xbox, alt.games.video.xbox

(Click the link to see original posting & follow-up discussion from other posters)
http://groups.google.com/group/rec....705ce1ecf6a257a

This essay was made at the time when the Wii was still called Revolution (boy how that name suddenly seems so old-fashioned now) & before the X-Box 360 was released.
AND despite my thoroughness in capturing the vibe of the scene I didn't factor in Sony's role in undoing itself only capturing the reality that Sony & Microsoft decide the fates of each other.
One small mistake but I think you'll like what I've said here.
(and maybe i could add more later in an update due to recent events)

Enjoy, fans.
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Just need to add in my fifth of a dime right quick.
For all gameplayers:

The Future of the Next-Generation of Gaming.

Here's the skinny folks.



Sony Playstation 3

STRENGTHS
•The 'Sony' brandname.
high familiarity because of a diverse array of products from music players, CD's, TV's to batteries in everything from supermarkets to pharmacies to department stores.

•Last Generation's Marketshare Champion.
heads into next generation to continue where they left off with the PS2 & its massive volume of games.

•Media Center.
Sony continues trying to expand the experience of gaming adding in mediaplaying tools for music, movies, etc. & tries to get the jump on the tech trends by being the first with Blu-Ray technology. Not to mention HD capabilities.

•3rd Party Strength.
what made the PS1 champion & subsequently the PS2, Sony hopes for this crucial component to continue for the PS3. Those powerhouse franchises from Square, Capcom & the like as well as other various 3rd party offerings are what make Playstation what it is today.


WEAKNESSES
•What's New?
there's a ho-hum feeling in the gaming audience lately & this feeling will increase over the coming years. Each previous generation brought something drastically different to the table but the spark is starting to fizzle out.
A crash is on the horizon. If PS3 seems like nothing more than a mere update to the PS2, then that spells long term trouble for Sony & any hopes for a PS4.

•High Cost.
once you go much over $200 for a game system people get chafed. With high gas prices & a bumbling economy a high cost for entertainment may seem superfluous & some buyers may ignore the system. there are some who may say "I can go to a 'massage parlor' for $400!"-[to keep it clean]

•Gambling On A Tech Format Standard.
memories of the Betamax are still fresh & Sony's pull for Blu-Ray is in a 50/50 chance for gain or fail. If adopted as standard, Sony gets the headstart. If NOT adopted, Sony's stuck with a collector's item.

•King Of The Hill Syndrome.
once you're on top there's nowhere to go but down. You can either maintain your acme or tumble down the slopes to the anxious competition. Sony has to maintain their position and with X-Box 360 & Nintendo Revolution this may not be possible.



Microsoft X-Box 360

STRENGTHS
•Online Capability.
X-Box Live helped create a distinct identity apart from Playstation that has given X-Box as edge. This edge will grow in the next generation as X-Box focuses more on the service.

•First Out The Gate.
X-Box 360 gets to marinate in the minds of gamers over the holidays & in the first parts of 2006 giving it the 'golden one & only' status. This will help it increase its marketshare edge against Playstation.

•Name.
X-BOX. Simplistic short abrupt 'X-otic' name makes it memorable in the minds of new potential gamers who've never played a game system before.
Playstation was a strong name that denoted 'the place, the location where games are played' [a universal feel]. But it has too many syllables.
The letter "X" is a letter used for many things & in many sayings. The word "Box" has easy common familiarity {sandbox, boxing, mailbox, cardboard box}.
The "x" in "box" takes you back to the "X" at the beginning of the name. And like the letters "Q" & "Z", "X" has an exotic flavor in the English language due to its limited use. The brandname was meant to be highly memorable to stick in buyers' heads.

•Has Something To Prove.
Microsoft wants their gamesystem to take over Sony's market this generation. They seek to siphon away Sony's audience to theirs. To do this they seek to make themselves distinct from Sony so people will have a reason for buying their offering.
This results in the lauding of their power & system capabilities as well as aggresive marketing tactics. High ambition will serve them well as they continue their erosion of Sony's market dominance.


WEAKNESSES
•Identity.
X-Box STILL has problems when it comes creating a distinction between them & Sony when many games on their system are available on Playstation 2. If this trend continues X-Box 360 will end up looking like a 5th wheel in the long run. With the strength of the Halo franchise & Rare on their team as well as their strong online they have created some differences but it's not enough. X-Box will have to get more exclusivity in the gaming experience if it hopes to erode Sony.

•Bill Gates-A-Phobia.
some people refuse to trust Microsoft for fear of monopoly & all that comes with it. No matter WHAT Microsoft is offering good or bad there are some who refuse to pay tribute to the world's richest man. When you see takes like "Micro$oft" & "M$" there's a big wall of distrust that could hinder X-Box 360's plans.

•High Cost.
once again when you go over $200 for a gamesystem you're pushing it. Yeah some will pony up but others will find it hard to part with those hard earned dollars for a gamesystem regardless of what you purport it to be.
There are some who say "a woman better pop out of the gameslot for THAT price!"

•First Out The Gate.
yes this is also a weakness. Going first may lead you to being one-upped by the competition who took longer to display their goods. Short-term win, long-term loss. X-Box 360 better hope their technology stands the test of time or either that no one will care if it HAS been one-upped.

•What's New?
once again like Sony but to a lesser extent. Still X-Box 360 has to convince the gaming public what's REALLY so special about what you're offering me? Graphics are not the key to success this time around.
Photorealism is practically realized & the gamesystems of the future will eventually seem like nothing more than mere updates to the system they just had. Eventually that will wear a good portion of the gaming public down who may wander elsewhere with their entertainment dollars. If the NEXT-next gen X-Box 360-Spherical is to come about they have to address this problem soon.



Nintendo Revolution

STRENGTHS
•Heritage/History.
Nintendo will ALWAYS have its heritage to count on. The gaming masterpieces they put out over the decades have shaped the world of gaming time & time again. People have grown up with them & that is a substantial component of their success. Even for those who left the Nintendo house there's a soft spot in people's hearts for this company. This will pan out with gold in Nintendo's retro gaming smorgasbord.

•1st Party Power
unlike the other companies Nintendo is the only true one who can put out its OWN in-house games & make not only hits but classics with. And not just a few at that. That ability to create new franchises & superstars serves this company very well. The mascot power is not to be overlooked. Many a Happy Meal was sold due to an overgrown red-headed clown's face.

•Innovators/Standard Makers.
many of the standards we see in the current gaming experience originated with Nintendo. Their ability to keep it fresh is what makes them truly the driving force behind this industry whether or not they are the market champion. With the Revolution they stand to do it once again by flipping the script on how games are played with the new Revolution controller.
More than any other entertainment field gaming must stay innovative to survive.

•Underdog/Dark Horse.
the one-time dominator of the industry is now seen as an also-ran by many. Many skip mentioning them as a factor in the next-generation because they assume it's past last call for Nintendo. But they may have assumed wrong.
Unlike the other companies Nintendo even in its reduced space in the market still stays comfortably in the black. Being overlooked has its advantages. It allows you to formulate strategies to upset your competitors away from the glare of the spotlight. For a company to lose so much position on marketshare but continue to profit denotes some kind of "coiled-snakes-in-the-peanut-brittle jar type of surprise that may spring out unexpectedly shocking everyone.

•Low Cost.
Nintendo's ability to create high-quality tech at low prices will help them tremendously in this Bushconomy where people chafe at the gas tanks & weaker jobs. As a matter of fact these two things may work together as people opt to stay home more to avoid using the car which will result in people using their limited funds for cheap-priced gaming entertainment.

•FREE Online Capablities.
if Nintendo pulls off a quality online service & makes it FREE to use they have usurped X-Box 360's advantage. X-Box Live has a fee. They would have to have more exclusive games to make it worth the while. Nintendo has exclusive games but with the word FREE you can't be beat! And in the process X-Box 360's distinction erodes THIS time in the favor of Nintendo.



WEAKNESSES
•Volume/3rd Party Weakness.
this has been Nintendo's problem since the Nintendo 64. With the virtual exodus of the 3rd party of those times Nintendo has not quite recovered.
Although their 1st party titles are always knockouts, games take longer to produce than in decades past. This means you need 3rd party gamemakers to fill in the gaps between homemade releases so heavy-collecting gamers won't get bored.

•Image.
Nintendo's strategy of being the "family-based" system has its good points but has left Nintendo labeled "the kiddie system". Even though games are for children & the child-at-heart Nintendo has to at least alter aspects of this image. Not by changing their marketing demographics, no, but by broadening the array of games they have available to entice the buyers who discounted them to give them another chance.

•Luddites.
innovations have their drawbacks. There are some afraid of the unknown. Nintendo's remote-like controller may be too out there for some used to the way things are now. As a result some may flat out refuse to try out the innovation on sight-alone. If too much of the gaming public shares this mindset, the limb Nintendo went out on may snap.

•No Media Center.
although this is a big factor of why Nintendo's offering will be cheaper than the others, not having all those little extra bells & whistles will cause some used to what Playstation & X-Box have been putting forth to ignore Nintendo. It's not a major disadvantage but there are some who DO want all of those features & Nintendo simply won't have them. Time will tell if the public cares more about the meat & potatoes of gaming or about the dressing of ambience.


MY PREDICTIONS:
Nintendo (believe it or not) will eventually come out on top this
generation. They offer a totally new experience that will be sure to pull in not just PS gamers & X-Box gamers but people who have never fathomed TOUCHING a game.

They will pull in new buyers & create gamers on the spot.
They will pull in more FEMALES to the gaming world than anyone else will.
They will pull in different age groups & cement their standing & philosophy as the family-friendly/for-all-ages company.
They will finally secure the 3rd party support in the process (old AND new) which will leave the other 2 companies struggling as they have little to offer from themselves alone.

1st party is ALWAYS important to keep around because 3rd party shifts. They will continue to flex their franchise power as they do every generation. All of the strategies put together in this 10-year period as the underdog will finally pay off in increased marketshare.


What happens between Sony PS3 & MS X-Box 360 depends on X-Box. Sony will lose marketshare DEFINITELY this time around. They will be strong & they are not pushovers but they will lose some of that dominance this time. Their ultimate outcome depends on how much X-Box can siphon away their customers.
I see it happening already. I got a friend who bought PS1 & PS2 and he now says he wants an X-Box 360.


If X-Box 360 succeeds in vampiring Sony's base X-Box becomes the #2 in contest with Nintendo & Sony is left 3rd.
X-Box will pick up the audience who are not impressed with Nintendo's offering for whatever reason.


If X-Box 360 DOESN'T succeed in BramStoker's Dracula-ing then X-Box is on the verge of being out of the biz & Sony is in contest with Nintendo taking the people who don't like what Nintendo is selling.

X-Box has to make its mark or it's over. Sony's in a more comfortable position than X-Box & that's why X-Box has to work harder. Expect to see some hardcore console wars between X-Box & PS3 especially. X-Box will lead with the venom because they are the hungriest.


Nintendo's going nowhere until they feel like it.
They are not Sega.
They have the art AND the business sense.


Hope this puts it in perspective.
Thanks for reading.


John Lucas

Bazooka

qf...BANNED!

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Pojo

I don't see a hyphen between the "x" and the "b". Do you see a hyphen? No.

This bothers Pojo, johnlucas.

Oh, and I did read what you had to say. What's up with the lame "sexual" jokes following the pricing issue for the 360 and PS3? You kind of killed it. :\

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johnlucas

It's just humor, man. I DO have a feeling some gamers thought those exact words when they heard about the high prices, though.

Sorry you didn't appreciate my hyphen.
It's what I always thought it was spelled as.
For web-adresses it's understandable to leave it out but I always figured that the pronunciation of the name naturally lent it to that spelling.

Else instead of X-Box [Ex-Box] we'd get XBox [Gzbox].
Tomayto, tomahto...

John Lucas

Vincent Valentine

This is what i support

but the Wii looks good too!

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Game Guru

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Assman

WOW. I guess you really didn't do any research in this area. Improved physics has been one of the major promises of the next-generation game experience, and this is what Sony has been stressing a lot lately. Vehicles, boxes, and the way how your clothes will move realisticly. Look at Motorstorm. Deformable tracks that will change the gameplay or the Car demo from the GDC(Eight Days?). The new Indiana Jones game will incorporate NaturalMotion's Euphoria. It's a next generation physics and animation system that will surely change the way how A.l. react in games. I just received my new issue of Game Informer, and some of things the Ubi Montreal is doing with Assassin's Creed will blow your mind.



Maybe in Japan. As far as Europe goes, it's a lock in for Sony. The U.S.? I'm not sure. As I've said before, It'll come down to Xbox360 or PS3.

Game Guru

No offense, but you've got to be fucking kidding me. Physics are great, but it's not as if Xbox 360 can't handle physics. Sure, the graphics may take a hit when they have physics in there, but the 360 doesn't cost $600 either. Not to mention even the Wii can hande some pretty good physics. Look at Red Steel and ExciteTruck. If you think PS3 is going to get anywhere by touting physics and the way some stupid CLOTHES MOVE. You're kidding yourself.

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Assman

PS3's difference will be in the CPU, things that rely on the CPU. The difference is also wider than simple floating point figures would suggest, for the kinds of things it'll be doing mostly, and I think that shows in the GDC demos. The stuff shown there was a lot more sophisticated in terms of physics and simulation than stuff we've seen on 360 so far. Wii's physics engine is nothing compared to PS3s. It makes it look like child's play.


Sure, 360 can easily handle Ageia, but only the PS3 and PC will be able to use all the engines features.


Also, I like how you only use "clothes" when talking about PS3's physics.

http://xbox360.ign.com/articles/702/702389p1.html

Rocksteady

Where's Sony's online plan as a strength? I guarentee their service is better the Nintendo's, and it's free. FREE.

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Noukon

Well, free, inclusive of the fact that you're paying $500+ for the console to take advantage of it.

Assman

Using revolutionary AI, biomechanics techniques and Dynamic Motion Synthesis, endorphin allows you to create high-quality character motions in real-time will create a new experience in gaming.

Check out this video: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hdImUIhbG9E

When gamers will be able to pull those moves off, they will say "That's amazing! I've never seen anything like that before!" Football fans will enjoy the A.l. and how they react when being tackled, running, juking, etc. Fighting fans will enjoy the realism of punches/kicks, and the way how they react when falling, or being thrown through a wall.

Game Guru

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Blueblur1

Physics? Are you retarded? The general gaming public doesn't give a **** about physics. Very few people on this forum care about physics. Physics isn't going to decide anything this generation.

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Assman

I've edited my post, and included a youtube video of what Euphoria is capable. Either way, you're still wrong. Like I said when I edited my post, gamers who enjoy different genres will truly enjoy what next gen physics and animation will provide, be it sports or fighting.



Obviously, you're ignorant when it comes to this topic, but then again, nobody cares for your "valued" input.

Robjomak

Assman you're like the ONLY ONE WHO EVER HYPES PHYSICS!

How many genres does it actually matter in? Most of the time it's eye candy at best! Woo its cool looking but it doesn't justify a $600 console. ****, like Keazu said it would probably have to actually cure cancer for that.

Oh and john, I'd mostly say your predictions and statements were right on the mark, the one thing I'd say that has changed since the time of writing would be the Sony-Microsoft situation. Strange as it may sound to some, I'd say Xbox is in the comfortable position right now. The American market is fickle, and they saw Xbox 360 first. I think PS3 may have an uphill battle in America with Microsoft, and a quickly-lost even battle with Nintendo in Japan.
Okay, friends codes suck, we get it. Breathe, man.

And you know it will probably suck more just the same. This is Sony we're talking about. If they offer anything free its just crippleware to get you to get the paid "decent" (by comparison) service.

Assman

Eh, we'll see. It'll make games more immersive.

Assman

I better end this debate. I'm being outnumbered.

Rocksteady

As always.

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